Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

102.62 – 47.56

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

210 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 58 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 543.1 ±9.3

321RoboLancers

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 11.35Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 51.85Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5401Fightin' Robotic Owls

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 39.42Rank 16Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 147.9 ±11.6

10143Northeast Vikings

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX -1.55Rank 34Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2554The Warhawks

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 1.39Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7414Retrobotics

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 47.72Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 321, 1640, 5401

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 321, 1640, 5401

Auto

25.8 26%

Teleop

52.4 54%

Endgame

19.4 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10143, 2554, 7414

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10143, 2554, 7414

Auto

24.1 50%

Teleop

9.1 19%

Endgame

15.0 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.6pts

Blue projected score47.6pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55.1
Score range: 22–129
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 249 vs event baseline 142.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

543.1Season APEX147.9

25.8Auto24.1

52.4Teleop9.1

19.4Endgame15

70Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	10
teleop	115	12
endgame	67	17
foul	0	0
total	210	39

Result

Final score

210 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 58 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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