Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

42.64 – 268.76

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

99 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 46.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 208 ±10.5

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 24.92Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10584Ridge Robotics

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX -6.47Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4750Bert

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 24.19Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 436.1 ±9.8

427LANCE-A-LOT

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 36.69Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9027PATH to Domination

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 71.89Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

103Cybersonics

Season APEX 276.7Event APEX 160.18Rank 2Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4575, 10584, 4750

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.6 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4575, 10584, 4750

Auto

12.3 32%

Teleop

21.4 56%

Endgame

4.7 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 427, 9027, 103

/ 100 compat

Projected

268.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 427, 9027, 103

Auto

36.3 14%

Teleop

135.8 51%

Endgame

95.4 36%

Strengths

· 103 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.58 · Blue 2.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score42.6pts

Blue projected score268.8pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -226.1
Score range: 18–294
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 331 vs event baseline 141.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

208Season APEX436.1

12.3Auto36.3

21.4Teleop135.8

4.7Endgame95.4

100Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	59
teleop	36	101
endgame	34	72
foul	0	0
total	99	232

Result

Final score

99 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 46.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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