Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

86.17 – 105.04

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

111 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 17.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 334 ±11.2

1807Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 197.4Event APEX 23.59Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8721Code Name M.I.T.

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 51.04Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1712Dawgma

Season APEX 100Event APEX 11.54Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 310.7 ±11

9100Robo Roses

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 8.2Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 33.87Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4285Camo-Bots

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 62.97Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1807, 8721, 1712

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1807, 8721, 1712

Auto

28.8 38%

Teleop

34.2 45%

Endgame

13.1 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9100, 2016, 4285

/ 100 compat

Projected

105 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9100, 2016, 4285

Auto

28.7 28%

Teleop

40.9 40%

Endgame

32.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86.2pts

Blue projected score105pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.9
Score range: 60–131
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 142.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

334Season APEX310.7

28.8Auto28.7

34.2Teleop40.9

13.1Endgame32.6

60Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	32
teleop	59	33
endgame	22	35
foul	5	15
total	111	115

Result

Final score

111 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 17.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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