Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

164.5 – 211.34

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

141 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 20.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 372.8 ±10.5

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 28.63Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2554The Warhawks

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 6.89Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

834SparTechs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 128.98Rank 13Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 445.4 ±11.2

5490The Dark Byte

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX -6.11Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5789The Other Owls

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 61.14Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 156.31Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2590, 2554, 834

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2590, 2554, 834

Auto

43.7 26%

Teleop

90.1 53%

Endgame

35.6 21%

Strengths

· 834 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5490, 5789, 316

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5490, 5789, 316

Auto

55.1 26%

Teleop

114.9 54%

Endgame

40.9 19%

Strengths

· 316 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score164.5pts

Blue projected score211.3pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.8
Score range: 140–236
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 369 vs event baseline 140.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

372.8Season APEX445.4

43.7Auto55.1

90.1Teleop114.9

35.6Endgame40.9

47Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	58
teleop	66	170
endgame	14	0
foul	5	0
total	141	228

Result

Final score

141 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 20.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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