Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

68.89 – 140.58

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

88 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 26.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 147.2 ±12.1

8630CAP ROBOTICS

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX -49.15Rank 31Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4750Bert

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 20.68Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2722Charge Robotics

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 97.36Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226.9 ±11.2

87Diablo

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 29.33Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 28.06Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9027PATH to Domination

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 83.19Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8630, 4750, 2722

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8630, 4750, 2722

Auto

11.1 17%

Teleop

43.3 67%

Endgame

10.7 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 87, 4575, 9027

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 87, 4575, 9027

Auto

33.9 24%

Teleop

74.8 53%

Endgame

33.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score68.9pts

Blue projected score140.6pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.7
Score range: 43–167
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 194 vs event baseline 142.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

147.2Season APEX226.9

11.1Auto33.9

43.3Teleop74.8

10.7Endgame33.6

116Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	14
teleop	49	42
endgame	14	50
foul	0	0
total	88	106

Result

Final score

88 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 26.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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