Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

94.13 – 69.44

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

273 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 97.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 421.9 ±11.2

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX -9.88Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 89.51Rank 6Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8721Code Name M.I.T.

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 14.5Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 218.9 ±11.7

7587Metuchen Momentum

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 91.91Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10584Ridge Robotics

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX -2.14Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8704Void Warranty

Season APEX 24.6Event APEX -20.33Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2016, 2539, 8721

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2016, 2539, 8721

Auto

31.3 30%

Teleop

55.9 54%

Endgame

17.0 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7587, 10584, 8704

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7587, 10584, 8704

Auto

7.6 14%

Teleop

30.9 57%

Endgame

15.9 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score94.1pts

Blue projected score69.4pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.7
Score range: 44–119
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 327 vs event baseline 141.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

421.9Season APEX218.9

31.3Auto7.6

55.9Teleop30.9

17Endgame15.9

82Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	22
teleop	143	14
endgame	70	18
foul	0	0
total	273	54

Result

Final score

273 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 97.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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