Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

183.78 – 143.13

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

129 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 66 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 532.1 ±9.9

1807Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 197.4Event APEX 31.75Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1257Parallel Universe

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 71.8Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 80.23Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337.8 ±10.5

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 74.38Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

321RoboLancers

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 37.37Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10143Northeast Vikings

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 31.38Rank 34Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1807, 1257, 1640

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1807, 1257, 1640

Auto

39.8 23%

Teleop

104.9 60%

Endgame

29.1 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1089, 321, 10143

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1089, 321, 10143

Auto

19.7 15%

Teleop

82.6 61%

Endgame

33.5 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score183.8pts

Blue projected score143.1pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.7
Score range: 117–210
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 195 vs event baseline 142.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

532.1Season APEX337.8

39.8Auto19.7

104.9Teleop82.6

29.1Endgame33.5

184Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	20
teleop	51	32
endgame	25	9
foul	5	5
total	129	66

Result

Final score

129 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 66 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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