Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

132.3 – 127.07

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

215 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 91.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 329.5 ±11.1

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 8.61Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2722Charge Robotics

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 88.67Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7414Retrobotics

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 35.02Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 183.5 ±12.8

8721Code Name M.I.T.

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 48.6Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

87Diablo

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 61.75Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10584Ridge Robotics

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 16.72Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2590, 2722, 7414

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2590, 2722, 7414

Auto

14.5 10%

Teleop

88.9 63%

Endgame

37.9 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8721, 87, 10584

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8721, 87, 10584

Auto

25.4 21%

Teleop

67.7 56%

Endgame

27.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score132.3pts

Blue projected score127.1pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.2
Score range: 102–157
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 241 vs event baseline 139.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

329.5Season APEX183.5

14.5Auto25.4

88.9Teleop67.7

37.9Endgame27.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	14
teleop	123	12
endgame	64	0
foul	0	0
total	215	26

Result

Final score

215 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 91.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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