Qualification · Qualification 15
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
66.7 – 216.33
13%87%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
97 – 121
Prediction correct · off by 62.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 238.6 ±11.7
Season APEX 9.6Event APEX 15.02Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 18.76Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 32.92Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.7 ±11.7
Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 97.12Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 18.69Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 150Event APEX 100.52Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4637, 427, 4285
45
/ 100 compatProjected
66.7 pts
~0.8 RP (district)
Teams: 4637, 427, 4285
Auto
12.0 16%
Teleop
46.4 62%
Endgame
16.9 22%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9027, 5490, 1089
88
/ 100 compatProjected
216.3 pts
~2.3 RP (district)
Teams: 9027, 5490, 1089
Auto
38.9 18%
Teleop
108.0 50%
Endgame
69.6 32%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.79 · Blue 2.33
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score66.7pts
Blue projected score216.3pts
Red win probability13%
Event bonus sample168alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 47%, blue 55%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -149.6
- Score range
- 41–242
- Upset likelihood
- 13%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
238.6Season APEX282.7
12Auto38.9
46.4Teleop108
16.9Endgame69.6
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 12 | 21 |
| teleop | 54 | 79 |
| endgame | 31 | 21 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 97 | 121 |
Result
Final score
97 – 121
Prediction correct · off by 62.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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