Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

58.68 – 321.07

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

230 – 230

Prediction missed · off by 131.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 435.7 ±11.1

834SparTechs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 48.01Rank 13Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8630CAP ROBOTICS

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX -48.5Rank 31Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 59.17Rank 6Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 465.8 ±10.5

103Cybersonics

Season APEX 276.7Event APEX 156.41Rank 2Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5401Fightin' Robotic Owls

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 54.72Rank 16Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1257Parallel Universe

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 109.94Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 834, 8630, 2539

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 834, 8630, 2539

Auto

26.6 40%

Teleop

20.1 30%

Endgame

19.5 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 103, 5401, 1257

/ 100 compat

Projected

321.1 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 103, 5401, 1257

Auto

67.3 21%

Teleop

180.0 57%

Endgame

70.1 22%

Strengths

· 103 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.66 · Blue 2.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score58.7pts

Blue projected score321.1pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -262.4
Score range: 34–346
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 460 vs event baseline 140.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

435.7Season APEX465.8

26.6Auto67.3

20.1Teleop180

19.5Endgame70.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	17
teleop	151	172
endgame	41	26
foul	0	15
total	230	230

Result

Final score

230 – 230

Prediction missed · off by 131.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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