Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

35.61 – 33.45

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

136 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 63.5 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 271.5 ±11

10143Northeast Vikings

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 13.19Rank 34Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4285Camo-Bots

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 8.84Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5789The Other Owls

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 13.58Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 159.3 ±12.1

4750Bert

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 14.3Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4342Demon Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 10.04Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9100Robo Roses

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 9.11Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10143, 4285, 5789

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10143, 4285, 5789

Auto

14.1 53%

Teleop

7.5 28%

Endgame

5.0 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4750, 4342, 9100

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4750, 4342, 9100

Auto

9.2 38%

Teleop

9.7 40%

Endgame

5.2 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score35.6pts

Blue projected score33.5pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.2
Score range: 7–62
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 143.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

271.5Season APEX159.3

14.1Auto9.2

7.5Teleop9.7

5Endgame5.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	14
teleop	93	13
endgame	21	28
foul	0	5
total	136	60

Result

Final score

136 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 63.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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