Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
92.91 – 152.04
32%68%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
198 – 115
Prediction missed · off by 71.1 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 230.8 ±12.2
Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 37.42Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 28.33Rank 16Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 27.16Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 181.3 ±12.2
Season APEX 86Event APEX 56.62Rank 13Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 45.15Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 9.6Event APEX 50.27Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2722, 5401, 8721
51
/ 100 compatProjected
92.9 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 2722, 5401, 8721
Auto
11.5 13%
Teleop
56.8 64%
Endgame
20.0 23%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 834, 10584, 4637
73
/ 100 compatProjected
152 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 834, 10584, 4637
Auto
33.0 23%
Teleop
78.7 54%
Endgame
32.9 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.91
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score92.9pts
Blue projected score152pts
Red win probability32%
Event bonus sample168alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 61%, blue 52%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -59.1
- Score range
- 67–178
- Upset likelihood
- 32%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
230.8Season APEX181.3
11.5Auto33
56.8Teleop78.7
20Endgame32.9
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 38 | 23 |
| teleop | 115 | 62 |
| endgame | 45 | 30 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 198 | 115 |
Result
Final score
198 – 115
Prediction missed · off by 71.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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