Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

147.24 – 143.59

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

79 – 96

Prediction missed · off by 57.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 371.5 ±11.7

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 123.98Rank 6Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4342Demon Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 29.43Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8704Void Warranty

Season APEX 24.6Event APEX -6.17Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 368.1 ±10.5

4750Bert

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 17.66Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5401Fightin' Robotic Owls

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 85.88Rank 16Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1807Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 197.4Event APEX 40.05Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2539, 4342, 8704

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2539, 4342, 8704

Auto

41.1 30%

Teleop

58.6 42%

Endgame

39.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4750, 5401, 1807

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4750, 5401, 1807

Auto

28.3 22%

Teleop

70.7 56%

Endgame

28.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score147.2pts

Blue projected score143.6pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.7
Score range: 115–176
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 175 vs event baseline 163.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

371.5Season APEX368.1

41.1Auto28.3

58.6Teleop70.7

39.4Endgame28.1

49Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	18
teleop	37	58
endgame	24	5
foul	0	15
total	79	96

Result

Final score

79 – 96

Prediction missed · off by 57.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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