Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

341.42 – 260.28

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

415 – 281

Prediction correct · off by 47.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 642.6 ±9.9

103Cybersonics

Season APEX 276.7Event APEX 128.27Rank 2Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

7414Retrobotics

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 25.32Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 187.83Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 611.4 ±9.3

427LANCE-A-LOT

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 32.82Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 104.16Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 123.3Rank 6Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 103, 7414, 316

/ 100 compat

Projected

341.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 103, 7414, 316

Auto

52.3 16%

Teleop

200.8 60%

Endgame

82.7 25%

Strengths

· 316 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 427, 2590, 2539

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 427, 2590, 2539

Auto

65.4 25%

Teleop

138.0 54%

Endgame

54.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.09 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score341.4pts

Blue projected score260.3pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 81.1
Score range: 231–370
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 696 vs event baseline 160.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

642.6Season APEX611.4

52.3Auto65.4

200.8Teleop138

82.7Endgame54.1

0Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	69
teleop	203	148
endgame	102	59
foul	20	5
total	415	281

Result

Final score

415 – 281

Prediction correct · off by 47.2 pts

Match videos

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