Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

328.77 – 258.6

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

446 – 282

Prediction correct · off by 70.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 642.6 ±9.9

103Cybersonics

Season APEX 276.7Event APEX 124.1Rank 2Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

7414Retrobotics

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 21.07Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 183.6Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 611.4 ±9.3

427LANCE-A-LOT

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 32.35Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 103.81Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 122.44Rank 6Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 103, 7414, 316

/ 100 compat

Projected

328.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 103, 7414, 316

Auto

48.5 15%

Teleop

197.5 60%

Endgame

80.9 25%

Strengths

· 316 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 427, 2590, 2539

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 427, 2590, 2539

Auto

65.0 25%

Teleop

139.5 54%

Endgame

51.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score328.8pts

Blue projected score258.6pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.2
Score range: 231–357
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 728 vs event baseline 158.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

642.6Season APEX611.4

48.5Auto65

197.5Teleop139.5

80.9Endgame51.9

0Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	71
teleop	228	126
endgame	99	75
foul	35	10
total	446	282

Result

Final score

446 – 282

Prediction correct · off by 70.3 pts

Match videos

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