Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

361.02 – 253.4

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

99 – 286

Prediction missed · off by 147.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 642.6 ±9.9

103Cybersonics

Season APEX 276.7Event APEX 134.84Rank 2Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

7414Retrobotics

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 31.74Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 194.44Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 611.4 ±9.3

427LANCE-A-LOT

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 30.4Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 101.56Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 121.44Rank 6Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 103, 7414, 316

/ 100 compat

Projected

361 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 103, 7414, 316

Auto

51.2 14%

Teleop

219.7 61%

Endgame

87.9 24%

Strengths

· 316 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 427, 2590, 2539

/ 100 compat

Projected

253.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 427, 2590, 2539

Auto

63.2 25%

Teleop

139.7 56%

Endgame

48.1 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.21 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score361pts

Blue projected score253.4pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 107.6
Score range: 225–389
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 385 vs event baseline 157.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

642.6Season APEX611.4

51.2Auto63.2

219.7Teleop139.7

87.9Endgame48.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	79
teleop	37	127
endgame	32	80
foul	0	0
total	99	286

Result

Final score

99 – 286

Prediction missed · off by 147.3 pts

Match videos

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