Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

219.79 – 51.45

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

246 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 17.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 544.6 ±10.5

5970Beavertronics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 11.15Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1425Error Code Xero

Season APEX 200Event APEX 127.86Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 80.78Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 284.8 ±11

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 18.99Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2635Lake Monsters

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 22.46Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9600X-Flare Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 10Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5970, 1425, 5937

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5970, 1425, 5937

Auto

50.0 24%

Teleop

124.0 59%

Endgame

36.7 17%

Strengths

· 1425 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9438, 2635, 9600

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9438, 2635, 9600

Auto

16.5 35%

Teleop

13.1 28%

Endgame

17.7 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.28 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score219.8pts

Blue projected score51.5pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 168.3
Score range: 27–244
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 135.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

544.6Season APEX284.8

50Auto16.5

124Teleop13.1

36.7Endgame17.7

0Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	15
teleop	127	31
endgame	44	10
foul	5	5
total	246	61

Result

Final score

246 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 17.9 pts

Match videos

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