Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

315.57 – 167.37

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

381 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 49 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 497.4 ±9.5

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 101.4Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3673C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 19.69Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 194.48Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 369 ±11

847PHRED

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 16.69Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 85.73Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 64.95Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6696, 3673, 1540

/ 100 compat

Projected

315.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6696, 3673, 1540

Auto

57.5 20%

Teleop

166.6 57%

Endgame

68.7 23%

Strengths

· 1540 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 847, 2471, 3663

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 847, 2471, 3663

Auto

47.9 29%

Teleop

85.9 53%

Endgame

29.7 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.23 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score315.6pts

Blue projected score167.4pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 148.2
Score range: 143–340
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 581 vs event baseline 133.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

497.4Season APEX369

57.5Auto47.9

166.6Teleop85.9

68.7Endgame29.7

4Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	88
teleop	166	84
endgame	124	28
foul	20	0
total	381	200

Result

Final score

381 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 49 pts

Match videos

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