Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

68.35 – 182.39

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

162 – 129

Prediction missed · off by 73.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 301.8 ±11.6

3636Generals

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 7.87Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 41.34Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4043NerdHerd

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 19.14Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281.9 ±11.7

2550Skynet

Season APEX 39Event APEX 34.46Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

957SWARM - South and West Albany Robotics Maniacs

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 82Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2374Jesuit Robotics

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 65.93Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3636, 4488, 4043

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3636, 4488, 4043

Auto

8.3 12%

Teleop

30.9 45%

Endgame

30.2 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2550, 957, 2374

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2550, 957, 2374

Auto

33.0 19%

Teleop

95.8 54%

Endgame

47.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score68.4pts

Blue projected score182.4pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -114
Score range: 44–206
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 291 vs event baseline 132.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

301.8Season APEX281.9

8.3Auto33

30.9Teleop95.8

30.2Endgame47.8

8Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	3	25
teleop	83	62
endgame	66	32
foul	10	10
total	162	129

Result

Final score

162 – 129

Prediction missed · off by 73.5 pts

Match videos

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