Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

212.62 – 138.88

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

269 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 43.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 544.6 ±10.5

5970Beavertronics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 9.1Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1425Error Code Xero

Season APEX 200Event APEX 125.71Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 77.81Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 305.8 ±11.6

6343Steel Ridge

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 23.55Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2990Hotwire

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 47.43Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

70342B Determined

Season APEX 128.9Event APEX 67.9Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5970, 1425, 5937

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5970, 1425, 5937

Auto

49.1 24%

Teleop

125.0 60%

Endgame

34.7 17%

Strengths

· 1425 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6343, 2990, 7034

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6343, 2990, 7034

Auto

24.0 17%

Teleop

78.5 57%

Endgame

36.3 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score212.6pts

Blue projected score138.9pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73.7
Score range: 115–237
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 378 vs event baseline 132.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

544.6Season APEX305.8

49.1Auto24

125Teleop78.5

34.7Endgame36.3

23Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	24
teleop	126	49
endgame	53	36
foul	30	0
total	269	109

Result

Final score

269 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 43.1 pts

Match videos

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