Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

184.2 – 158.13

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

176 – 218

Prediction missed · off by 34 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 281.9 ±11.7

957SWARM - South and West Albany Robotics Maniacs

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 82.23Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2550Skynet

Season APEX 39Event APEX 35.01Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2374Jesuit Robotics

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 66.96Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 369 ±11

847PHRED

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 14.46Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 81.79Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 61.88Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 957, 2550, 2374

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 957, 2550, 2374

Auto

34.3 19%

Teleop

100.4 56%

Endgame

44.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 847, 2471, 3663

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 847, 2471, 3663

Auto

42.3 27%

Teleop

80.7 52%

Endgame

31.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score184.2pts

Blue projected score158.1pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.1
Score range: 134–208
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 394 vs event baseline 131.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

281.9Season APEX369

34.3Auto42.3

100.4Teleop80.7

44.5Endgame31.3

26Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	73
teleop	74	104
endgame	61	31
foul	10	10
total	176	218

Result

Final score

176 – 218

Prediction missed · off by 34 pts

Match videos

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