Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

297.99 – 75.68

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

407 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 65.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 497.4 ±9.5

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 95.33Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3673C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 14.08Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 188.58Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 301.8 ±11.6

4043NerdHerd

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 22.3Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 44.19Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3636Generals

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 9.19Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6696, 3673, 1540

/ 100 compat

Projected

298 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6696, 3673, 1540

Auto

57.1 20%

Teleop

163.6 57%

Endgame

65.7 23%

Strengths

· 1540 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4043, 4488, 3636

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.7 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4043, 4488, 3636

Auto

10.6 14%

Teleop

34.2 46%

Endgame

30.2 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score298pts

Blue projected score75.7pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 222.3
Score range: 53–321
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 461 vs event baseline 129.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

497.4Season APEX301.8

57.1Auto10.6

163.6Teleop34.2

65.7Endgame30.2

14Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	3
teleop	181	17
endgame	89	34
foul	75	0
total	407	54

Result

Final score

407 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 65.3 pts

Match videos

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