Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

90.21 – 174.59

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

141 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 301.8 ±11.6

3636Generals

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 14.91Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 48.85Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4043NerdHerd

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 26.45Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 369 ±11

847PHRED

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 18.81Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 88.37Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 67.41Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3636, 4488, 4043

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3636, 4488, 4043

Auto

6.6 7%

Teleop

49.7 55%

Endgame

33.5 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 847, 2471, 3663

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 847, 2471, 3663

Auto

56.4 33%

Teleop

83.9 49%

Endgame

29.8 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.95 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score90.2pts

Blue projected score174.6pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -84.4
Score range: 65–200
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 293 vs event baseline 137.9.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

301.8Season APEX369

6.6Auto56.4

49.7Teleop83.9

33.5Endgame29.8

17Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	48
teleop	88	85
endgame	31	14
foul	5	5
total	141	152

Result

Final score

141 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.