Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

52.14 – 82.31

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

84 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 42.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 284.8 ±11

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 19.07Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2635Lake Monsters

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 22.79Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9600X-Flare Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 10.28Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 301.8 ±11.6

3636Generals

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 12.26Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 46.32Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4043NerdHerd

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 23.73Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9438, 2635, 9600

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9438, 2635, 9600

Auto

15.8 33%

Teleop

16.2 34%

Endgame

16.0 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3636, 4488, 4043

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3636, 4488, 4043

Auto

6.5 8%

Teleop

39.9 49%

Endgame

35.2 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score52.1pts

Blue projected score82.3pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.2
Score range: 27–107
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 219 vs event baseline 136.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

284.8Season APEX301.8

15.8Auto6.5

16.2Teleop39.9

16Endgame35.2

61Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	8
teleop	15	104
endgame	30	23
foul	20	0
total	84	135

Result

Final score

84 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 42.3 pts

Match videos

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