Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

88.28 – 66.74

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

25 – 154

Prediction missed · off by 75.3 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 136.8 ±13.3

2550Skynet

Season APEX 39Event APEX 63.82Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10444Ursa Major

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 3.6Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2915Pandamonium

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 20.86Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 409 ±10.5

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 15.71Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9613Lion's Byte

Season APEX 23.2Event APEX 1.88Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 49.15Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2550, 10444, 2915

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2550, 10444, 2915

Auto

11.8 14%

Teleop

56.4 68%

Endgame

15.1 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3663, 9613, 5937

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3663, 9613, 5937

Auto

12.5 19%

Teleop

51.3 79%

Endgame

1.0 2%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score88.3pts

Blue projected score66.7pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.5
Score range: 43–112
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 179 vs event baseline 132.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

136.8Season APEX409

11.8Auto12.5

56.4Teleop51.3

15.1Endgame1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	31
teleop	11	101
endgame	0	17
foul	5	5
total	25	154

Result

Final score

25 – 154

Prediction missed · off by 75.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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