Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

173.3 – 37.32

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 54

Prediction missed · off by 69.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 300.2 ±11

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 72.1Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10444Ursa Major

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 8Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

957SWARM - South and West Albany Robotics Maniacs

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 93.2Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 192.5 ±12.1

3673C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 11.49Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4043NerdHerd

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 20.69Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9600X-Flare Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 5.14Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3663, 10444, 957

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3663, 10444, 957

Auto

31.1 18%

Teleop

96.6 56%

Endgame

45.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3673, 4043, 9600

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3673, 4043, 9600

Auto

5.0 13%

Teleop

8.9 24%

Endgame

23.3 63%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score173.3pts

Blue projected score37.3pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 136
Score range: 13–197
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 105 vs event baseline 131.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

300.2Season APEX192.5

31.1Auto5

96.6Teleop8.9

45.5Endgame23.3

0Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	10
teleop	13	20
endgame	0	24
foul	0	0
total	51	54

Result

Final score

51 – 54

Prediction missed · off by 69.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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