Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.67 – 82.49

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

139 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 31.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 376 ±11.2

6831A-05 Annex

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 20.46Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 15.68Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 76.53Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 225.3 ±13.3

2915Pandamonium

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 16.97Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5975Beta Blues

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 27.69Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2898Flying Hedgehogs

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 37.83Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6831, 9438, 5937

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6831, 9438, 5937

Auto

28.2 28%

Teleop

58.9 58%

Endgame

15.2 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2915, 5975, 2898

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2915, 5975, 2898

Auto

3.8 5%

Teleop

46.5 66%

Endgame

19.7 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112.7pts

Blue projected score82.5pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.2
Score range: 58–137
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 184 vs event baseline 131.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

376Season APEX225.3

28.2Auto3.8

58.9Teleop46.5

15.2Endgame19.7

23Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	9
teleop	69	13
endgame	26	18
foul	5	5
total	139	45

Result

Final score

139 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 31.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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