Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

211.97 – 111.7

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

230 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 19.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 379.3 ±11

6343Steel Ridge

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 21.84Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

70342B Determined

Season APEX 128.9Event APEX 65.99Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1425Error Code Xero

Season APEX 200Event APEX 124.14Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 371.2 ±11

847PHRED

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 12.97Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 78.59Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2635Lake Monsters

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 20.14Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6343, 7034, 1425

/ 100 compat

Projected

212 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6343, 7034, 1425

Auto

36.7 17%

Teleop

121.1 57%

Endgame

54.1 26%

Strengths

· 1425 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 847, 2471, 2635

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 847, 2471, 2635

Auto

41.6 38%

Teleop

49.5 46%

Endgame

17.4 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.07 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score212pts

Blue projected score111.7pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 100.3
Score range: 88–236
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 362 vs event baseline 131.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

379.3Season APEX371.2

36.7Auto41.6

121.1Teleop49.5

54.1Endgame17.4

4Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	59
teleop	133	35
endgame	34	33
foul	5	5
total	230	132

Result

Final score

230 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 19.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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