Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

160.46 – 203.72

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

109 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 274.7 ±12.2

2550Skynet

Season APEX 39Event APEX 39.26Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2990Hotwire

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 51.76Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2374Jesuit Robotics

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 69.44Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 418.6 ±11.4

5970Beavertronics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 10.43Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4662Byte Sized Robotics

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 6.82Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 186.47Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2550, 2990, 2374

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2550, 2990, 2374

Auto

29.3 19%

Teleop

85.5 56%

Endgame

38.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5970, 4662, 1540

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5970, 4662, 1540

Auto

51.4 25%

Teleop

110.9 55%

Endgame

40.2 20%

Strengths

· 1540 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score160.5pts

Blue projected score203.7pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.3
Score range: 137–227
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 322 vs event baseline 130.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

274.7Season APEX418.6

29.3Auto51.4

85.5Teleop110.9

38.9Endgame40.2

23Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	51
teleop	43	129
endgame	32	33
foul	15	0
total	109	213

Result

Final score

109 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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