Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.2 – 110.97

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

194 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 22.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 306.1 ±11.7

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 92.59Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3024My Favorite Team

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX 8.76Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4513Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 75.9Event APEX 53.85Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.6 ±11

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 46.35Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3574HIGH TEKERZ

Season APEX 43Event APEX 6.85Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1595The Dragons

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 57.77Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6696, 3024, 4513

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6696, 3024, 4513

Auto

23.9 16%

Teleop

95.0 64%

Endgame

30.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4488, 3574, 1595

/ 100 compat

Projected

111 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4488, 3574, 1595

Auto

28.3 27%

Teleop

61.4 58%

Endgame

16.9 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score155.2pts

Blue projected score111pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.2
Score range: 88–178
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 299 vs event baseline 130.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

306.1Season APEX307.6

23.9Auto28.3

95Teleop61.4

30.1Endgame16.9

31Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	19
teleop	124	47
endgame	34	9
foul	15	30
total	194	105

Result

Final score

194 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 22.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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