Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

81.61 – 124.87

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

198 – 75

Prediction missed · off by 83.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 305.9 ±12.8

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 67.47Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4662Byte Sized Robotics

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX -3.2Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5975Beta Blues

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 17.34Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 260.9 ±11.6

2898Flying Hedgehogs

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 42.85Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

70342B Determined

Season APEX 128.9Event APEX 69.33Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10444Ursa Major

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 12.69Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2471, 4662, 5975

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2471, 4662, 5975

Auto

30.7 41%

Teleop

37.1 50%

Endgame

6.5 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2898, 7034, 10444

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2898, 7034, 10444

Auto

12.7 10%

Teleop

78.0 63%

Endgame

33.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81.6pts

Blue projected score124.9pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.3
Score range: 58–149
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 273 vs event baseline 130.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

305.9Season APEX260.9

30.7Auto12.7

37.1Teleop78

6.5Endgame33

0Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	13
teleop	122	47
endgame	29	10
foul	0	5
total	198	75

Result

Final score

198 – 75

Prediction missed · off by 83.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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