Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

199.45 – 146.56

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

192 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 7.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 393.5 ±11.4

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 185.59Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9600X-Flare Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 4.48Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3024My Favorite Team

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX 9.38Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.6 ±11.7

2550Skynet

Season APEX 39Event APEX 39.73Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

847PHRED

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 11.94Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 94.89Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1540, 9600, 3024

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1540, 9600, 3024

Auto

46.5 24%

Teleop

105.9 54%

Endgame

44.7 23%

Strengths

· 1540 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2550, 847, 6696

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2550, 847, 6696

Auto

31.2 24%

Teleop

76.0 58%

Endgame

23.9 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score199.5pts

Blue projected score146.6pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.9
Score range: 124–222
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 331 vs event baseline 130.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

393.5Season APEX296.6

46.5Auto31.2

105.9Teleop76

44.7Endgame23.9

31Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	22
teleop	112	87
endgame	52	30
foul	5	0
total	192	139

Result

Final score

192 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 7.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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