Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

82.36 – 63.53

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

110 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 27.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 188.7 ±12.2

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 14.52Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2915Pandamonium

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 15.56Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4513Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 75.9Event APEX 52.28Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 270.6 ±12.2

9613Lion's Byte

Season APEX 23.2Event APEX 3.01Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6831A-05 Annex

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 15.12Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 45.4Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9438, 2915, 4513

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9438, 2915, 4513

Auto

15.4 21%

Teleop

43.8 59%

Endgame

15.5 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9613, 6831, 4488

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9613, 6831, 4488

Auto

19.8 34%

Teleop

24.8 43%

Endgame

13.7 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score82.4pts

Blue projected score63.5pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.8
Score range: 40–106
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 201 vs event baseline 130.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

188.7Season APEX270.6

15.4Auto19.8

43.8Teleop24.8

15.5Endgame13.7

48Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	26
teleop	73	51
endgame	18	9
foul	0	5
total	110	91

Result

Final score

110 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 27.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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