Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

96.51 – 117.59

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

79 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 19 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 239.6 ±12.7

5975Beta Blues

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 19.15Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2990Hotwire

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 53.46Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6343Steel Ridge

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 23.9Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 431.1 ±10.5

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 91.68Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5970Beavertronics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 8.85Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2635Lake Monsters

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 17.06Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5975, 2990, 6343

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5975, 2990, 6343

Auto

18.6 20%

Teleop

42.2 45%

Endgame

32.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6696, 5970, 2635

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6696, 5970, 2635

Auto

28.2 28%

Teleop

51.6 51%

Endgame

21.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score96.5pts

Blue projected score117.6pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.1
Score range: 73–142
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 217 vs event baseline 131.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

239.6Season APEX431.1

18.6Auto28.2

42.2Teleop51.6

32Endgame21.1

0Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	25
teleop	38	78
endgame	15	35
foul	15	0
total	79	138

Result

Final score

79 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 19 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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