Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

90.26 – 89.53

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

89 – 121

Prediction missed · off by 16.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 175.3 ±13.3

4513Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 75.9Event APEX 50.99Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4662Byte Sized Robotics

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX -2.16Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2550Skynet

Season APEX 39Event APEX 41.43Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258 ±11

3673C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 14.14Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 63.74Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 11.65Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4513, 4662, 2550

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4513, 4662, 2550

Auto

27.2 30%

Teleop

58.2 64%

Endgame

5.4 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3673, 2471, 9438

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3673, 2471, 9438

Auto

28.2 34%

Teleop

37.1 45%

Endgame

17.0 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score90.3pts

Blue projected score89.5pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.7
Score range: 66–114
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 210 vs event baseline 131.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

175.3Season APEX258

27.2Auto28.2

58.2Teleop37.1

5.4Endgame17

30Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	59
teleop	42	53
endgame	22	9
foul	0	0
total	89	121

Result

Final score

89 – 121

Prediction missed · off by 16.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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