Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

184.19 – 77.3

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

195 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 18.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 437 ±11

3636Generals

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 9.87Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 45.25Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1425Error Code Xero

Season APEX 200Event APEX 129.07Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226.4 ±11.6

1595The Dragons

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 65.48Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10444Ursa Major

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 9.26Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9600X-Flare Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 2.56Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3636, 4488, 1425

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3636, 4488, 1425

Auto

29.8 16%

Teleop

104.1 57%

Endgame

49.2 27%

Strengths

· 1425 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1595, 10444, 9600

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1595, 10444, 9600

Auto

22.0 29%

Teleop

42.2 56%

Endgame

11.7 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score184.2pts

Blue projected score77.3pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 106.9
Score range: 53–208
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 298 vs event baseline 131.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

437Season APEX226.4

29.8Auto22

104.1Teleop42.2

49.2Endgame11.7

8Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	12
teleop	109	56
endgame	35	35
foul	0	0
total	195	103

Result

Final score

195 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 18.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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