Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

176.52 – 116.07

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

165 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 13.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 377.2 ±10.4

2374Jesuit Robotics

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 80.86Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2635Lake Monsters

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 19.04Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 76.62Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.4 ±12.7

6831A-05 Annex

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 16.61Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2898Flying Hedgehogs

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 44.07Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2990Hotwire

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 55.39Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2374, 2635, 3663

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2374, 2635, 3663

Auto

25.9 16%

Teleop

95.3 57%

Endgame

45.2 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6831, 2898, 2990

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6831, 2898, 2990

Auto

19.8 19%

Teleop

53.1 52%

Endgame

29.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score176.5pts

Blue projected score116.1pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 60.5
Score range: 92–201
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 265 vs event baseline 131.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

377.2Season APEX299.4

25.9Auto19.8

95.3Teleop53.1

45.2Endgame29.8

17Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	26
teleop	85	46
endgame	58	28
foul	0	0
total	165	100

Result

Final score

165 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 13.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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