Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

104.23 – 40.48

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

105 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 27.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 182.8 ±12.2

9613Lion's Byte

Season APEX 23.2Event APEX 1.38Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3024My Favorite Team

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX 9.27Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

957SWARM - South and West Albany Robotics Maniacs

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 93.58Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 206.9 ±12.1

6343Steel Ridge

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 19.57Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5970Beavertronics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 3.56Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4043NerdHerd

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 17.35Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9613, 3024, 957

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9613, 3024, 957

Auto

27.3 26%

Teleop

64.9 61%

Endgame

13.7 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6343, 5970, 4043

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6343, 5970, 4043

Auto

10.1 24%

Teleop

3.3 8%

Endgame

27.9 68%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score104.2pts

Blue projected score40.5pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.8
Score range: 16–128
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 200 vs event baseline 132.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

182.8Season APEX206.9

27.3Auto10.1

64.9Teleop3.3

13.7Endgame27.9

26Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	14
teleop	32	42
endgame	42	39
foul	0	0
total	105	95

Result

Final score

105 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 27.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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