Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

138.64 – 85.84

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

73 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 43.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 284.8 ±11.7

70342B Determined

Season APEX 128.9Event APEX 73.93Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2915Pandamonium

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 13.5Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1595The Dragons

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 51.21Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.2 ±11.6

2990Hotwire

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 53.21Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9600X-Flare Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 11.99Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 20.64Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7034, 2915, 1595

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7034, 2915, 1595

Auto

19.8 15%

Teleop

88.7 66%

Endgame

25.2 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2990, 9600, 9438

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2990, 9600, 9438

Auto

18.3 23%

Teleop

36.8 47%

Endgame

23.3 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score138.6pts

Blue projected score85.8pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.8
Score range: 60–165
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 138 vs event baseline 142.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

284.8Season APEX276.2

19.8Auto18.3

88.7Teleop36.8

25.2Endgame23.3

26Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	7
teleop	64	34
endgame	2	24
foul	0	0
total	73	65

Result

Final score

73 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 43.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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