Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

289.9 – 84.59

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

210 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 78.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 448.7 ±10

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 193.11Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

847PHRED

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 19.72Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

70342B Determined

Season APEX 128.9Event APEX 77.07Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360.1 ±11.7

2915Pandamonium

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 8.21Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 76.3Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3574HIGH TEKERZ

Season APEX 43Event APEX 0.08Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1540, 847, 7034

/ 100 compat

Projected

289.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1540, 847, 7034

Auto

48.8 17%

Teleop

174.9 61%

Endgame

63.4 22%

Strengths

· 1540 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2915, 5937, 3574

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.6 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2915, 5937, 3574

Auto

18.4 26%

Teleop

43.1 62%

Endgame

8.5 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.42 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score289.9pts

Blue projected score84.6pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 205.3
Score range: 61–314
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 372 vs event baseline 131.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

448.7Season APEX360.1

48.8Auto18.4

174.9Teleop43.1

63.4Endgame8.5

64Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	35
teleop	112	72
endgame	35	50
foul	0	5
total	210	162

Result

Final score

210 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 78.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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