Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

31.35 – 158.18

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

62 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 64.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 221 ±12.2

5975Beta Blues

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 13.69Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2635Lake Monsters

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 18.21Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9613Lion's Byte

Season APEX 23.2Event APEX -0.55Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.7 ±11.7

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 57.22Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 66.66Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2550Skynet

Season APEX 39Event APEX 34.3Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5975, 2635, 9613

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5975, 2635, 9613

Auto

16.7 72%

Teleop

7.1 31%

Endgame

-0.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2471, 3663, 2550

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2471, 3663, 2550

Auto

42.6 29%

Teleop

72.0 48%

Endgame

34.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score31.4pts

Blue projected score158.2pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -126.8
Score range: 7–182
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 318 vs event baseline 131.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

221Season APEX354.7

16.7Auto42.6

7.1Teleop72

-0.7Endgame34.1

21Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	48
teleop	23	170
endgame	20	38
foul	5	0
total	62	256

Result

Final score

62 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 64.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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