Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

148.76 – 329.25

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

95 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 69 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 350.4 ±10.4

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 16.55Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 49.2Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

70342B Determined

Season APEX 128.9Event APEX 83.01Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 450.6 ±10

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 201.48Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6343Steel Ridge

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 27.93Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

957SWARM - South and West Albany Robotics Maniacs

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 99.84Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9438, 4488, 7034

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9438, 4488, 7034

Auto

11.0 7%

Teleop

96.7 65%

Endgame

40.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1540, 6343, 957

/ 100 compat

Projected

329.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1540, 6343, 957

Auto

75.3 23%

Teleop

177.6 54%

Endgame

77.1 23%

Strengths

· 1540 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.67 · Blue 2.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score148.8pts

Blue projected score329.3pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -180.5
Score range: 125–353
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 340 vs event baseline 131.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

350.4Season APEX450.6

11Auto75.3

96.7Teleop177.6

40.5Endgame77.1

15Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	45
teleop	55	133
endgame	13	67
foul	0	0
total	95	245

Result

Final score

95 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 69 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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