Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.32 – 151.66

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

151 – 138

Prediction missed · off by 38.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 238.2 ±12.2

4043NerdHerd

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 12.02Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2915Pandamonium

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 1.74Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2374Jesuit Robotics

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 73.56Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.3 ±11.6

847PHRED

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 21.31Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1425Error Code Xero

Season APEX 200Event APEX 127.15Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3574HIGH TEKERZ

Season APEX 43Event APEX 3.2Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4043, 2915, 2374

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4043, 2915, 2374

Auto

0.9 1%

Teleop

38.1 49%

Endgame

39.5 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 847, 1425, 3574

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 847, 1425, 3574

Auto

37.8 27%

Teleop

75.3 54%

Endgame

26.5 19%

Strengths

· 1425 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.3pts

Blue projected score151.7pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64.3
Score range: 63–176
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 289 vs event baseline 131.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

238.2Season APEX296.3

0.9Auto37.8

38.1Teleop75.3

39.5Endgame26.5

19Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	33
teleop	82	75
endgame	42	30
foul	5	0
total	151	138

Result

Final score

151 – 138

Prediction missed · off by 38.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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