Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

67.4 – 122.72

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 32.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254.2 ±12.1

3636Generals

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 9.41Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2898Flying Hedgehogs

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 47.49Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5970Beavertronics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 10.5Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 265.8 ±11.7

2635Lake Monsters

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 20.36Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2550Skynet

Season APEX 39Event APEX 36.06Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1595The Dragons

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 66.3Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3636, 2898, 5970

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3636, 2898, 5970

Auto

7.9 13%

Teleop

31.7 54%

Endgame

19.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2635, 2550, 1595

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2635, 2550, 1595

Auto

37.8 33%

Teleop

66.9 58%

Endgame

11.3 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.06 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67.4pts

Blue projected score122.7pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.3
Score range: 43–147
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 125 vs event baseline 133.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254.2Season APEX265.8

7.9Auto37.8

31.7Teleop66.9

19.4Endgame11.3

57Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	40
teleop	5	29
endgame	17	13
foul	5	10
total	33	92

Result

Final score

33 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 32.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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