Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.89 – 129.8

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

232 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 64.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 558.3 ±9.9

9600X-Flare Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX -7.69Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 69.12Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 94.46Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 259.2 ±11.6

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 60.22Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6343Steel Ridge

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 21.91Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4513Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 75.9Event APEX 47.67Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9600, 5937, 6696

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9600, 5937, 6696

Auto

20.4 14%

Teleop

94.5 66%

Endgame

28.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3663, 6343, 4513

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3663, 6343, 4513

Auto

22.4 17%

Teleop

75.8 58%

Endgame

32.7 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score155.9pts

Blue projected score129.8pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.1
Score range: 106–180
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 415 vs event baseline 131.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

558.3Season APEX259.2

20.4Auto22.4

94.5Teleop75.8

28.9Endgame32.7

33Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	26
teleop	134	93
endgame	37	64
foul	20	0
total	232	183

Result

Final score

232 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 64.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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