Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

38.47 – 272.45

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 34.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 134 ±12.7

9613Lion's Byte

Season APEX 23.2Event APEX 2.02Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6343Steel Ridge

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 30.23Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4662Byte Sized Robotics

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 6.22Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 528.8 ±10.5

1425Error Code Xero

Season APEX 200Event APEX 132.65Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4513Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 75.9Event APEX 53.21Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 86.59Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9613, 6343, 4662

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.5 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9613, 6343, 4662

Auto

16.3 39%

Teleop

13.0 31%

Endgame

12.6 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1425, 4513, 5937

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1425, 4513, 5937

Auto

57.6 22%

Teleop

160.9 60%

Endgame

48.2 18%

Strengths

· 1425 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.52 · Blue 2.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score38.5pts

Blue projected score272.5pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -234
Score range: 12–298
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 265 vs event baseline 142.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

134Season APEX528.8

16.3Auto57.6

13Teleop160.9

12.6Endgame48.2

37Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	39
teleop	28	153
endgame	7	23
foul	0	0
total	50	215

Result

Final score

50 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 34.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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