Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

82.33 – 95.33

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

56 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 19.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 259.9 ±12.2

4662Byte Sized Robotics

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 11.75Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 55.33Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3673C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 15.25Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214.9 ±12.2

2374Jesuit Robotics

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 76.19Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5975Beta Blues

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 15.72Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3574HIGH TEKERZ

Season APEX 43Event APEX 3.42Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4662, 4488, 3673

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4662, 4488, 3673

Auto

18.1 21%

Teleop

37.8 43%

Endgame

32.2 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2374, 5975, 3574

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2374, 5975, 3574

Auto

16.8 19%

Teleop

42.9 50%

Endgame

26.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score82.3pts

Blue projected score95.3pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13
Score range: 58–119
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 139 vs event baseline 131.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

259.9Season APEX214.9

18.1Auto16.8

37.8Teleop42.9

32.2Endgame26.7

0Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	3	8
teleop	48	38
endgame	5	7
foul	0	30
total	56	83

Result

Final score

56 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 19.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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