Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

2.2 – 299.17

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 54.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 202.8 ±13.3

3636Generals

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 5.34Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6831A-05 Annex

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 2.8Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2915Pandamonium

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX -5.94Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 535.6 ±9.5

4043NerdHerd

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 10.6Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 94.38Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 194.19Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3636, 6831, 2915

/ 100 compat

Projected

2.2 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3636, 6831, 2915

Auto

4.3 0%

Teleop

-15.5 100%

Endgame

4.4 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4043, 6696, 1540

/ 100 compat

Projected

299.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4043, 6696, 1540

Auto

43.2 15%

Teleop

161.9 57%

Endgame

77.8 28%

Strengths

· 1540 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.48 · Blue 2.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score2.2pts

Blue projected score299.2pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -297
Score range: -21–322
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 411 vs event baseline 129.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

202.8Season APEX535.6

4.3Auto43.2

-15.5Teleop161.9

4.4Endgame77.8

0Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	69
teleop	13	185
endgame	34	79
foul	20	5
total	73	338

Result

Final score

73 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 54.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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