Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

132.68 – 123.91

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

266 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 81.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 352.4 ±12.2

2990Hotwire

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 44Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3024My Favorite Team

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX -18.65Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1425Error Code Xero

Season APEX 200Event APEX 107.33Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 273.8 ±12.2

9600X-Flare Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX -1.97Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2550Skynet

Season APEX 39Event APEX 31.08Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

957SWARM - South and West Albany Robotics Maniacs

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 94.8Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2990, 3024, 1425

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2990, 3024, 1425

Auto

28.6 22%

Teleop

76.2 59%

Endgame

24.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9600, 2550, 957

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9600, 2550, 957

Auto

32.7 27%

Teleop

70.1 58%

Endgame

17.7 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score132.7pts

Blue projected score123.9pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.8
Score range: 101–156
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 420 vs event baseline 126.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

352.4Season APEX273.8

28.6Auto32.7

76.2Teleop70.1

24.1Endgame17.7

70Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	39
teleop	146	81
endgame	61	34
foul	5	0
total	266	154

Result

Final score

266 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 81.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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