Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.19 – 71.41

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

27 – 120

Prediction missed · off by 66.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 201.8 ±12.7

2898Flying Hedgehogs

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 71.49Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3574HIGH TEKERZ

Season APEX 43Event APEX 8.97Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4662Byte Sized Robotics

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 31.73Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234.8 ±11

847PHRED

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX -6.38Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 24.7Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 53.09Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2898, 3574, 4662

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2898, 3574, 4662

Auto

18.3 18%

Teleop

55.8 55%

Endgame

26.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 847, 9438, 3663

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 847, 9438, 3663

Auto

12.2 18%

Teleop

46.3 69%

Endgame

8.4 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112.2pts

Blue projected score71.4pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.8
Score range: 48–135
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 147 vs event baseline 128.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

201.8Season APEX234.8

18.3Auto12.2

55.8Teleop46.3

26.9Endgame8.4

47Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	14
teleop	9	53
endgame	9	33
foul	0	20
total	27	120

Result

Final score

27 – 120

Prediction missed · off by 66.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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